Special Articles

A Brief Review of International Experiences in Technology Foresight

Michael Keenan

Abstract

This paper provides a brief overview of international experiences in national technology foresight. It begins with an account of the diffusion of foresight practice between countries and within them, demonstrating its still growing popularity. The paper then describes the different rationales that justify the use of foresight, highlighting their shift away from an original R&D priority-setting focus towards a more process-oriented focus that emphasises dialogue and networking between different actors in national systems of innovation. The methodological approaches used in different countries are then compared, suggesting a possible link between method preferences and political and institutional cultures. In a penultimate section, the paper offers several explanations for the lack of evaluation of foresight. A final section briefly speculates on the continuing need for foresight in future years. The paper draws heavily upon the recently published Handbook of Technology Foresight, where the experiences of national technology foresight exercises conducted in many parts of the world are analysed in considerable detail.