Articles

Foresight Study on the Energy Sector in South Korea: With a Focus on Establishing Strategic Scenarios and Preparing Response Strategies

Byung-Yong Hwang, Sang-Sung Nam, Han-Lim Choi

Abstract

This study, by utilizing network analysis, clarified the relationship between influencing factors of the future energy sector from a multi-dimensional perspective. Scenario planning and hierarchical analysis were used with key uncertainty factors (KUF) to create three predictable strategic scenarios for the year 2030 in South Korea (optimistic, business as usual, and pessimistic) and common strategies that need to be urgently pursued as well as the priority of maximum risk avoidance strategies for each scenario were presented. Specifically, this study presents the global economic trend, changes in industrial structure, and energy pricing as key uncertainty factors. In addition, to prepare effective policy alternatives for the future energy sector, it points out that, in addition to implementation of changes in industrial structure and national energy demand management strategies, securing of fundamental energy efficiency technology should be applied to government policy with top priority. The implications and limitations of the study were then discussed based on these findings.

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